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Strategy Indicator - Percent winning trades for a trading rule
Let us say you have a trading system that contains three trading rules, imagine if you have a indicator that acts like a backtester or simulator; it analyzes each trading rule before it is applied to a stock or a security and tells you whether this rule was profitable for that stock during a specific number of bars. If the rule is not profitable then the trading indicator disables it.
If you have never used the Buy Indicator, maybe it is time to start using it. The buy indicator can do exactly what I have described above.
The strategy indicator is an adaptive indicator that uses the same logic as the buy indicator but returns a different time series. Instead of returning the performance of a strategy that buys a stock when the provided rule is TRUE and sells it after a given number of bars, this indicator returns the percentage of winning trades that are above a given threshold. You can apply this indicator to any trading rule and in any market (Stock Market, futures, commodities, currencies).
Here is a simple example:
You would like to create a trading rule that buys a stock when its RSI or relative strength index crosses above 30 (cross(rsi(14), 30)).
The following indicator allows you to test the profitability of this rule by returning for each trading day the percentage of winning trades (Buy when RSI crosses above 30 and sell after 10 bars) that returned more than 1%. This function also instructs the application to return the result only when there are at least 8 trades during the 300 bars lookback period.
SIndicator_PP(cross(rsi(14), 30), 10, 1, 8, 300)
If for the bar number 1000 the function returned 100%, this means that for the previous 300 bars (700-1000), all trades that were generated by this strategy had a performance that is higher than 1%.
To apply this indicator to your trading rule, you can use the following formula:
cross(rsi(14), 30) AND SIndicator_PP(cross(rsi(14), 30), 10, 1, 8, 300) >= 60
This tells the trading software to disable the RSI crossover rule when less than 60% of the trades generated by its corresponding strategy had a higher return than 1%.
The result is that the RSI crossover will be applied to some stocks for certain bars and not to others.
This strategy indicator is a very powerful tool and it can be used to develop trading systems and strategies that outperform the market in bull and bear periods.
The adaptive strategy indicator (SIndicator_PP) parameters are:
Rule: The trading rule to analyze
Bars: The number of bars to hold the trade or position
Threshold: The return threshold
Trades: The minimum number of trades
Lookback: The lookback period used to backtest the strategy
Trading financial instruments, including foreign exchange on margin, carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in financial instruments or foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.