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                                                   System MAE Metric

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Dave W.
2014-02-12 16:57:26


I might just be missing it, but is a there a way for me to tell the Max Adverse Excursion (MAE) for a trading system as a whole? I see the position-based MAE metrics, but I don't see a system-based MAE metric that provides the MAE assuming multiple positions are open concurrently.

Thank you.
Dave



QuantShare
2014-02-12 21:12:30

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Dave,

This requires a money management script. Take a look at this:
MAE and MFE of a Trading System





MAE and MFE of a Trading System (by QuantShare, uploaded several months ago)
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Dave W.
2014-02-13 02:43:43

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Thanks much for doing this! Your responsiveness on stuff like this is outstanding! Much appreciated.

Unfortunately, I don't think the script you provided is working properly if I'm reading it properly. I say that because, in the system I tested the new AMM script with, the system's MAE metric was smaller (-4.27%) than the system's max drawdown (-8.68%). I don't think that is possible - the system's MAE must be at least as big as the system's drawdown, correct?



QuantShare
2014-02-13 11:25:37

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The MAE measures the largest LOSS suffered by a single trade (system in this case) while it is open.
MAE is always smaller (or equal if the system never had a gain) than the maximum drawdown.




Dave W.
2014-02-13 18:22:01

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Ok. Thanks again.

I guess I did a poor job of explaining what I was looking for / made some assumptions that are not shared. What I was looking for is a measure of the most adverse equity moves, including adverse equity moves for open trades. An example would probably help get us on the same page.

Let's say my initial system equity was $100,000. I take 3 trades that are all opened and closed on the same days, and the trades are held 10 days. All the trades end up as losers and all three trades are exactly the same size in dollars - $20,000 each. When those 3 trades are closed out in 10 days, I have $95,000 in closed equity remaining and my max system drawdown is 5% ($100k - $5k).

When these trades were open, though, there were some volatile days. At the end of day 5, all three trades were down double digits - trade 1 was down 10% ($2,000), trade 2 was down 15% ($3,000), and trade 3 was down 20% ($4,000). So, at the end of day 5, my equity is $100,000 - ($2,000 + $3,000 + $4,000) = $91,000. So what I was calling the "System MAE" -- the worst intra-trade drawdown -- would be -9%. Just like when you calculate MAE on individual trades, the System MAE would always be worse (or equal to) the maximum per-trade drawdown.

Is that an easy change to the script you wrote?



QuantShare
2014-02-14 19:38:17

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Something like this Maximum Intraday System Drawdown





Maximum Intraday System Drawdown (by QuantShare, uploaded several months ago)
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Dave W.
2014-02-16 20:03:09

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Thanks for trying to help with this... I really thought this would be pretty easy, but maybe not!

This code you gave for the metric returns a number that I'm not sure the best way to validate. In the system I attached the script to, the result for the metric was -290. I don't have a way to make sense of that number. The max drawdown for the system is -8.67, so I would have expected the System MAE to be somewhere between -8.67 and maybe -20.



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