Interpret Prediction results and making it useful?

Interpret Prediction results and making it useful?

Kiran
2016-05-20 18:45:23

I ran AI->Prediction model with 5 inputs on SPY (following the various How-To tutorials and blogs) and Output is Boolean: perf(close,1)>0

1) How do i interpret if the prediction is accurate ? e.g. i get
- Directional Accuracy, Signal Accuracy, RMS error, Absolute error in Training and Validation periods. What's a threshold for good predictive power?
- Also, not sure how to interpret Output/Bar (a double value) - my Output function is Boolean, so this doesn

2) Is there a way to specify Optimization parameters in Prediction model Inputs, so it can learn which parameters are effective and drop the rest?
e.g. can i input something like ... Optimize("period", 4, 32, 4); RSI(per); instead of adding 8 RSI inputs?
- need a way to specify "bulk inputs"

3) How can i see the details of the model to determine which inputs are effective drivers of the results and which ones aren't?
I realize i can use Predict("name") function in a strategy, but it doesn't give insight into which factors are working

QuantShare
2016-05-21 05:35:48

1/ There is no such a threshold for good predictive power. QuantShare will automatically pick the best network based on your settings.
There are many tutorials online to learn more about neural networks.
You can also check our documentation.

Strategy Output per Bar refers to the strategy applied to this neural network. Check "Strategy" tab when creating or editing a neural network.

2/ The only way to optimize a neural network is using "AI -> Optimizer". Create a new optimizer then select a neural network to optimize.

3/ There is no way to know that unless you test each combination.

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